Pak-Afghan bilateral agriculture trade: challenges and opportunities

Abdullah ,, Wali Khan, Ram L. Ray, Nawab Khan


The hub of the Muslim world and Central Asian countries, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, have many trade agreements. Both countries share a long history as agricultural trading partners since 1969. The study was designed to investigate the challenges and opportunities for increasing bilateral trade. For research purposes, Peshawar in Pakistan and Jalalabad in Afghanistan were selected. The research data were collected through purposeful sampling techniques, and the appropriate sample size followed a systematic procedure. Data were analyzed using statistical methods to yield further results. The study employed the Gravity Model, Descriptive Statistics, Ordinary Least Square Method, and Correlation to describe its findings. Specifically, a modified Gravity Model of bilateral agriculture trade was applied to analyze trade flows between Pakistan and Afghanistan. The study's results demonstrated that major determinants of Pak-Afghan total trade flow include distance, GDP per capita, transportation, taxes, and the population of both countries. The findings revealed that a higher GDP per capita leads to increased trade, distance acts as a trade deterrent, and historical ties, such as being former members of the same country, have future implications for more trade compared to otherwise similar countries. 


Marketing; Challenges; Opportunities; Gravity Model; Pak-Afghan Agriculture Trade; OLS Method; Global Impact


Ali, N. and Rahim, A. 2018. Scenario-Based Impediments for Intelligent Freight Transportation in Pakistan. In 2018 15th International Conference on Smart Cities: Improving Quality of Life Using ICT &Iot (HONET-ICT) (pp. 97-101). IEEE.

Anderson, J. E. 2011. The gravity models. Annual Review of Economics, 3(1): 133-160.

Baier, S. L. and Bergstrand, J. H. 2007. Do free trade agreements increase members' international trade? Journal of International Economics, 71(1): 72-95.

Boddewyn, J. J. 2016. International business–government relations research 1945–2015: Concepts, typologies, theories and methodologies. Journal of World Business, 51(1): 10-22.

Chand, R. and Saxena, R. 2014. Bilateral India-Pakistan agricultural trade: Trends, composition and opportunities (No. 287). Working Paper.

Cochran, V. C. 2013. A Crossroad to Economic Triumph or Terrorism: The Afghanistan-Pakistan Transit Trade Agreement. Global Security Studies, 4(1).

De Benedictis, L. and Taglioni, D. 2011. The gravity model in international trade (pp. 55-89). Springer Berlin Heidelberg.

Frankel, J. A. and Romer, D. 2017. Does trade cause growth? In Global trade (pp. 255-276). Routledge.

PBC, 2014. The Pakistan business council, Fostering Economic Growth, pp. 1-27.

Ghafoor, A., Aslam, M. and Rasool, S. 2012. Determinants of leather goods exports: A case of Pakistan. Journal of Business and Economics, 4(2): 256.

Humayun, F. 2018. Pak-Afghan Trade Relations, Looking Ahead. Jinnah institute, The Afghanistan Essays, 5-7.

International Monetary Fund, 2020. World Economic Outlook: A Long and Difficult Ascent. Washington, DC, October. Pp. 213.

Kagan, J. 2018. Galen's prophecy: Temperament in human nature. Routledge.

KCCI, 2017. Pakistan& Afghanistan Trade, pp. 1-2.

Kepaptsoglou, K., Karlaftis, M. G. and Tsamboulas, D. 2010. The gravity model specification for modeling international trade flows and free trade agreement effects: a 10-year review of empirical studies. The open economics journal, 3(1).

Khadim, R., Erritali, M. and Maaden, A. 2016. Hierarchical location-based services for wireless sensor networks.In 2016 13th International Conference on Computer Graphics, Imaging and Visualization (CGiV) (pp. 457-463).IEEE.

Khan, M. U. and Hussain, S. T. 2015. Pakistan – India Agricultural Trade, SANEI Working Paper Series No. 16 - 01, South Asia Network of Economic Research Institutes, Dhaka.

Khan, S. A., Takrim, K. and Gul, H. 2017. Pakistan-Afghanistan Transit Trade: Pre & Post APTTA Scenario. Journal of Managerial Sciences, 11(1).

Kristjánsdóttir, H. 2005. A gravity model for exports from Iceland. CAM, Centre for Applied Microeconometrics. http:/

Mazhar, M. S. and Goraya, N. S. 2010. Pak-Afghan Relations Post 9/11: Prospects & Opportunities. South Asian Studies, 25(2).

Mazhar, M., 2017. Trade Development Authority of Pakistan (TDAP) Ministry of Commerce, Govt. of Pakistan Karachi, pp. 1-22.

Melitz, M. J. 2003. The impact of trade on intra‐industry reallocations and aggregate industry productivity. Econometrica, 71(6): 1695-1725.

Nawaz, A. M. 1989. U.S. Patent No. 4,861,334. Washington, DC: U.S. Patent and Trademark Office.

PBSTDA, 2019. Pakistan Bureau of Statistics and Trade Development Authority of Pakistan

Rayit, A. 2010. Farmers ‘perceptions about the agricultural Extension―Hub Programmeǁ in Tehsil Dera Ghazi Khan. Unpublished Master ‘s thesis, Dept. of Agri. Ext. UA, Faisalabad.

Shabbir, R. and Ahmad, S. S. 2016. Water resource vulnerability assessment in Rawalpindi and Islamabad, Pakistan using analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Journal of King Saud University-Science, 28(4): 293-299.

Sharif, M., Farooq, U. and Bashir, A. 2000. Illegal trade of Pakistan with Afghanistan and Iran through Balochistan: Size, balance and loss to the public exchequer. International Journal of Agriculture and Biology, 2(3): 199-203.

Subramanian, R., Insley, R. G. and Blackwell, R. D. 1993. Performance and readability: A comparison of annual reports of profitable and unprofitable corporations. The Journal of Business Communication, 30(1): 49-61.

Sultana, R. 2011. Pakistan-Afghan Economic Relations: Issues and Prospects. Pakistan Horizon, 64(1): 21-37.

Taneja, N. 2006. India-Pakistan Trade. ICRIER Working Paper No, 182.

Taneja, N. 2007. India Pakistan trade possibilities and non-tariff barriers. New Delhi: Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations. Working Paper, 200.

Tashakkori, A. and Teddlie, C. (Eds.). 2010. Sage handbook of mixed methods in social & behavioral research. Sage.

Tellis, A. J. and Mukharji, A. 2010. Is a regional strategy viable in Afghanistan? Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Washington DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Zingel, W. P. 2014. The Economics of Pakistan–Afghanistan Relations: Implications for the Region. India Quarterly, 70(1): 1-14.

Full Text: PDF

DOI: 10.33687/ijae.012.001.4989


  • There are currently no refbacks.

Copyright (c) 2024 nawab khan

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.