Cereal crops production in Pakistan: Trends instability and growth

Jhangir S. Kakar, Abdul S. Lodhi, Adnan Nazir, Shoaib Akhtar, Muhammad A. Iqbal


Cereal grains have been considered as the primary source of the human diet for centuries. The present study tends to investigate trends, instability and growth in cereal crops in Pakistan. Using times series data from 1951 to 2020 (70 years). Linear, quadratic, and exponential growth models were used to forecast and find the best-fitted model. Also, Coppock’s Instability Index was measured for the area and production of selected cereal crops in Pakistan. Results indicate that wheat, rice and maize showed a positive growth trend. While bajra (millet) and jowar (sorghum) depicted a negative decreasing trend for area and production. The Coppock Index was determined to be more in production for wheat, rice and maize (76, 74 and 85 %). Likewise, the area for the selected cereal crops did not have much variable instability in the past 70 years. In accordance with these outcomes, the public line departments should intervene and promote these non-traditional cereal food crops as they are important sources of nutrition. Also, it would share benefits in the country’s economy. 


Cereal crops; Trend; Area; Production; Forecasting


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DOI: 10.33687/ijae.011.002.4821


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