Impact of climate change on the distribution of Oryctes rhinoceros in Malaysia: species distribution modelling and future projections
Abstract
Climate change is increasingly influencing the distribution and outbreak dynamics of insect pests, particularly in tropical agro-ecosystems. This study modelled the current and future potential distribution of Oryctes rhinoceros in Malaysia using MaxEnt based on bioclimatic variables and climate change scenarios. A total of seven uncorrelated bioclimatic variables were analyzed. Precipitation of the driest quarter (Bio17), mean temperature of the wettest quarter (Bio8), and annual temperature range (Bio7) were identified as the most influential predictors. Model performance was robust, with an AUC of 0.818 and a TSS of 0.65, indicating good predictive accuracy and reliability. Results from response curves indicated O. rhinoceros favors moderate dry-season rainfall (100-500 mm), warm and humid conditions (27-28°C), and intermediate thermal seasonality (8-12°C annual temperature range). The Jackknife test further confirmed Bio17 as the dominant variable, followed by Bio8 and Bio7. Current distribution mapping showed variable infestation levels across Malaysia, with higher habitat suitability in states such as Kedah, Perak, Selangor, Terengganu, and Negeri Sembilan. Future projections revealed relatively stable distribution under SSP126 and SSP245 scenarios up to 2050; however, under the high-emission SSP585 scenario, a marked expansion of suitable habitats was observed. By 2070, all scenarios indicated increased habitat suitability, with SSP585 projecting widespread high to very high suitability across most Malaysian states, including Sabah, Sarawak, Selangor, and Peninsular regions. In conclusion, climate change is expected to significantly enhance the potential distribution and establishment risk of O. rhinoceros in Malaysia, particularly under high-emission pathways, emphasizing the need for proactive pest management and climate-adaptive control strategies.
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.33804/pp.010.03.6194
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