Ecological niche modeling of the distribution and spread of paper mulberry (Broussonetia papyrifera) in Haripur, Hazara, Pakistan

Muhammad Naveed, Manzoor Hussain, Zafeer Saqib, Saleha Ashfaq, Nazia Shaheen, Muhammad Azhar Khan, Gulzaman William, Abdul Majid, Fawaz Manzoor

Abstract


The rapid expansion of paper mulberry (Broussonetia papyrifera) in Haripur, Hazara division, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan, has raised serious ecological concerns owing to its invasive nature and strong competitive ability against native vegetation. This study integrates high-resolution Sentinel-2 multispectral imagery with Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) species distribution modeling to assess habitat suitability and identify key environmental drivers governing the species’ spatial spread. The results indicate that 76.9% of the landscape is unsuitable for paper mulberry establishment, whereas only 4.6% is classified as highly suitable. Agricultural land use contributed most strongly to the model (49%), followed by canopy height (21.3%) and total vegetation cover (14.1%), highlighting a pronounced association with disturbed and anthropogenically modified environments. Temporal analysis spanning 1990-2024 revealed substantial fluctuations in paper mulberry coverage, with an initial phase of relative stability followed by pronounced declines attributed to deforestation and urban expansion. Notably, a sharp increase in coverage was observed after 2020, likely driven by landscape disturbances and favorable climatic conditions. Between 2020 and 2024, a net gain of 0.0708 km² was recorded, indicating an accelerating expansion trend. Collectively, these findings emphasize the need for proactive management strategies to mitigate the ecological impacts of paper mulberry while judiciously balancing its commercial and agroforestry applications. Future research integrating high-resolution spatial modeling with extensive field-based validation will be critical for enhancing predictive accuracy and supporting evidence-based land-use planning in the region.

Keywords


Invasive alien species, Ecological niche modeling, Broussonetia papyrifera, Habitat suitability mapping, Species distribution modeling (MaxEnt)

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References


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DOI: https://doi.org/10.33804/pp.009.04.5935

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